American Strikes in Nigeria: A Risk of Opportunity for Terrorists

Lundi 29 Décembre 2025

The recent American strikes against the Islamic State in Nigeria, far from delivering a fatal blow, could paradoxically offer an opportunity to terrorist groups. In the Lake Chad Basin, the Islamic State—already weakened and responsible for the collapse of Boko Haram and the death of its leader Abubakr Chikao in May 2021—struggles to win over local populations and recruit new fighters.

The strengthened presence of the armies of the countries bordering Lake Chad has significantly reduced the influence of these factions. Unlike the former G5 Sahel area, the Islamic State has never succeeded in taking control of a city in the Lake Chad Basin region.

However, certain political rhetoric, notably the religious slogan promoted by Donald Trump, risks reinforcing terrorist propaganda. These groups seek to portray their struggle as a sacred war against “infidels,” even though 90% of the victims of their attacks are Muslims rather than Christians.

If the true objective is to eradicate the Islamic State, the approach must go beyond airstrikes. It must involve direct support to local armies through coordinated ground and air offensives. African regimes must also commit to fighting corruption and ensuring more transparent governance, respecting democratic values, in order to strengthen the legitimacy of states in the eyes of their populations. Ambitious development projects are needed—capable of creating jobs and offering prospects to young people—in order to cut off terrorist recruitment at its roots.

Dr. Ahmat Yacoub