What are the possible scenarios after Iran's rejection of the US peace plan?

Mercredi 25 Mars 2026

It seems that the world is heading straight for total chaos with unpredictable consequences. What are the possible scenarios?


 
 
In this situation of total strategic blockage, the United States of America and its ally Israel want to dismantle the Iranian strike forces and Tehran wants to impose a new regional reality. In the face of the intransigence of all sides, it seems that the world is heading straight for total chaos, the consequences of which are unpredictable. What are the possible scenarios?
 
1. Knowing that even after Iran's rejection of the US peace plan, diplomatic channels remain open. But the gap between the two sides is large enough to reach a peace agreement. However, international mediation (Pakistan, China, Egypt, Turkey, Gulf countries such as Qatar and Oman, etc.) to reach even a partial agreement or a temporary ceasefire to avoid conflagration, remains possible, even if this scenario is a little fragile given the intransigence of the belligerents.
 
2. Major military escalation (most likely in the short term). With an intensification of strikes between the United States, Israel and Iran, the regional extension of the Gulf, Iraq, Yemen... With attacks on oil bases and infrastructure. In this case, the conflict would cross a threshold with massive strikes and regional responses.
 
3. Risk of regional war (world economic war). This is a critical scenario. With the closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and its consequences such as the explosion in oil prices (already observed) and the disruption of international trade. It should be remembered that the Strait of Hormuz is a global strategic lock, its closure could paralyze oil flows and cause an oil shock and a global economic crisis.
 
4. Long war of attrition, i.e. no quick victory despite intermittent exchanges of strikes, economic pressure and gradual deterioration. This will result from a status quo of neither peace nor victory, but a long war of attrition.
 
5. Switch to a wider conflict (worst case) with the possibility of the involvement of other countries in the war by supporting one of the two parties; The international navy will be directly hit, hence the direct confrontation causing a global crisis.

Various sources consulted: El País Institute of Strategic Sciences vie-publique.fr www.centrerecherche.com