Fighting remains intense in a context marked by territorial fragmentation and fluid frontlines. After months of clashes, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have regained control of nearly all of Al-Jazirah State, including its capital, Wad Madani.
Although pushed southwest, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain residual or clandestine presence in certain rural areas. They continue to besiege key cities such as El-Fasher, Babanoussa, and Deledj.
It is worth noting that out of Sudan’s 6,751 km of land borders shared with seven countries (Egypt, Eritrea, Libya, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Chad, and the Central African Republic), the RSF controls approximately 4,870 km — or 72.1%. This means five of the seven borders are under the grip of the militia led by General Mohammed Hamdan Hemetti.
The RSF dominates nearly 80% of Darfur’s territory and between 2% to 5% of the rest of Sudan, mainly in the Kordofan region. Despite military gains since March 2025 — notably the recapture of Khartoum and El-Jazirah — the regular army currently controls less than 8% of the country’s land borders.
The share of national territory under RSF control is estimated between 15% and 20%. However, this figure remains volatile, as territorial control shifts frequently. General Hemetti warned last week that his forces intend to retake the capital, Khartoum.
The RSF’s aggressive offensives against El-Fasher, combined with their resilience in Kordofan, are exerting growing pressure on the SAF. This dynamic may push the army to consider negotiations, or at least to give its approval to the Quarto’s call for a ceasefire. During a visit to Cairo last weekend, following talks with the Egyptian president, observers noted a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic breakthrough. Unfortunately, upon returning to Khartoum, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan reaffirmed on national television that no negotiations with the RSF were possible, and that the war would continue until victory.
According to several analysts, a decisive victory by either side appears unlikely. The regional governor of Darfur, Mr. Mina Arko Minawi, acknowledged that the war would only end if the United Arab Emirates ceased its support for the RSF.
In an interview broadcast on national television on October 18, 2025, General Minawi stated that despite partial territorial control, the RSF is facing difficult times. He added that joint forces are continuing their advance, having retaken Koutoum and achieved a significant victory in El-Fasher on Saturday, October 18.
Dr. Ahmat Yacoub Dabio
Conflict Management Expert
President of CEDPE
yacoubahmat@aol.com
