An agreement, lacking guarantees, would risk creating the conditions for a puppet state

The Sudanese army, led by General Al-Burhan, rejected on Sunday the American proposal for a ceasefire. According to the army, such an agreement, lacking guarantees, would risk creating the conditions for a puppet state, similar to the situations in Libya and Yemen. The army believes it would give the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) the opportunity to strengthen their manpower and military capabilities, thus paving the way for a resumption of the conflict in an even more deadly form.

It declares its intention to continue the fight “until victory.” Meanwhile, 24 hours later, General Hemetti, leader of the RSF, unilaterally accepted a three-month ceasefire for humanitarian reasons.

General Al-Burhan rejects the presence of the United Arab Emirates in the Quartet and demands, for any ceasefire, the prior withdrawal of RSF fighters from all cities captured since the Jeddah agreement in May 2023 and their confinement in sites placed under the supervision of foreign observers. The RSF consider these conditions as a demand for surrender, arguing that they complicate the task of international mediators.

Accused of committing atrocities in El-Fasher, the RSF, highly mobile and well-organized, already control a large part of the territory (Darfur and Kordofan). According to an Emirati analyst, even in ten years the army would not be able to defeat them.

The failure of mediation would prolong instability and worsen the humanitarian crisis. This is why Washington is considering a stronger mediation by preparing a new peace plan, according to American researcher Cameron Hudson. The new plan would likely integrate more Sudanese demands, according to Bradley Isabelle, a political analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa, who envisions a broader mediation—excluding Boulos and the United Arab Emirates accused of supporting militias, but including regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar. For Bradley Isabelle, the new plan could provide greater credibility and accelerate the success of the mediation process, potentially saving 20 million lives among refugees and displaced persons and reducing the suffering of three million malnourished children.

In summary, the Sudanese crisis stands at a strategic crossroads: either it sinks into a prolonged war, or it opens the way to a more robust international mediation.